Too close to call

EU Referendum result on a knife edge

There is only one campaigning day left before the referendum is held on Thursday and the UK result seems to be too close to call. The financial markets and the bookies (Betfair on Monday were offering 5 to 1 for Brexit) seem to be suggesting that Remain had it in the bag but the UK's only known psephologist, John Curtice, warned against discounting a Leave majority. The pollsters are all over the place.

The one thing everyone seems to agree on is that there will be a majority vote for Remain in Scotland. YouGov have produced a rather interesting map showing the geographical strength/weakness for Leave and Remain across the UK. The darker the red the more support for Remain and the darker the blue the more support for Leave.

Perhaps even more interesting is the chart which shows levels of support for Leave according to party and age. For example, 50% or more of SNP & Plaid Cymru voters (GE2015) aged 74+ are intending to vote Leave. The YouGov chart shows increased support for Leave as the age of the respondents increases for every party. Remain may be hoping for a big turnout from younger voters in urban areas and Leave for older voters almost everywhere else.

Caveat: YouGov haven't at the time of writing, as far as we are aware, published the underlying data for the map and chart.


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